I have never been tempted to drag myself out of a post-Thanksgiving coma to mingle with the early morning freaks on Black Friday. But darn that Kohl’s if they didn’t have the best deal on digital photo frames. So, there I was, pulling into Kohl’s at 4:15 a.m., and under my droopy eyelids I suddenly notice not 1, 2 or 3 but like 8-10 women strolling out of the store with purchases in hand. The store had only been open for 15 minutes! These gals must have been camped out since 2 a.m. and, obviously, knew exactly what they wanted - my digital photo frame. Dang it!

I parked the car, in the second back lot since the first was a complete nightmare, and strolled into the store. After finding the empty shelf that was home to my digital photo frame and catching a glimpse of the frenzy throughout the store, I split. I then strolled over to Best Buy, which was opening at 5 a.m., and got in the line about 300 people deep. A guy in front of me told another guy that he’d need a ticket or he’d be forced to wait outside and, by the way, they weren’t giving out tickets anymore. Back to the car I went. I’ll spare you the details of the rest of my day, which I now call Black-Eye Friday, for the elbow-throwing crazies who will do anything to grab the biggest deal first.

Have we totally lost our minds? Retailers are pointing to high fuel prices (which are definitely a factor but not always a deal breaker) and the mortgage crunch for pre-blame commentary on how they will have a tough holiday season. Dozens of surveys and reports such as this one by U.S. News predict consumers will tighten their belts and spend less than we have in the past 5 years. Fooey! It’s not the holidays we should be worried about. Consumers won’t spend less between now and December 25. They’ll just jack up their plastic and then, starting January 1, try to figure out how to pay for it. And that’s when we’ll all be in trouble.

I don’t think we’ll have an all-out recession (plus, who am I to predict such things?), but I do think that businesses will be tightening up in every area: resources, marketing, advertising, overhead, employee benefits and anything that isn’t instantly reflective of the bottom line. You will see tons more businesses investing marketing dollars in online within the next two years. This isn’t difficult to predict based on the recent growth in trends and the Googlization of advertising, but I believe more businesses will be open to online for basic cost-saving factors. As long as they can be sure of the return and, with online, tracking the return is as easy as a few clicks and a scan of the data.

You can take all the surveys you want that will predict a slow in spending, and they might be true, but I’m less concerned with the economical effects of not buying Johnny an iPhone in Christmas 2007 versus the after-effects of a nervous economy that breeds less investing and ostrich-like spending in 2008 and beyond.